ABSTRACT
The "transition problem" is the more narrow question of managing reduction of nuclear weapons to zero. The size of nuclear forces is well-understood, in a world of several nuclear weapon states planners cannot be completely sure who their adversaries might be, or how they might combine. The nuclear states must obey natural laws, respect technological facts, and respond to economic constraints. Defense planners of a state practicing nuclear deterrence must consider the risk that their forces will be the object of a surprise strike. The elements of mutual nuclear deterrence are adequate deployed nuclear forces, mutually aware adversaries, uncertainty, complexity, strategic interactions, mutual suspicion, and the risk of reciprocal racing. Hypothetical hidden weapons pose an issue that is not distinctive to small numbers, but is most significant at zero. Public discussion of strategic nuclear arms control centers on treaty negotiations, and the numbers—of warheads, of delivery vehicles—in the treaty text.
