ABSTRACT
Nuclear weapons propelled some non-nuclear states to acquire nuclear arms: horizontal proliferation. Many believe that a larger number of nuclear states increase the possibility of nuclear war. Zero nuclear weapons (ZNW) is likely to produce large-scale, destructive conventional war. Whether there would be new incentives for conventional war after ZNW matters little if effective collective security measures, required as a political precondition of ZNW, were in place. Israel was more willing to go to war because of its presumed nuclear capabilities: perhaps nuclear weapons reduced Israel's risk in undertaking conventional war. Neither the Iraq nor Lebanon war, however, is a poster child for war as policy. The near-universal condemnation of the US and Israeli actions is strong evidence of revulsion against the initiation of conventional war. There is sufficient risk of large-scale conventional war after ZNW that it would be imprudent to adopt ZNW as policy.
