ABSTRACT

The statistical techniques involved in the computation of projections of births are generally more complex than those used in the computations of survivors. This chapter begins by examining the different techniques of computations for projections of births. The rate of fertility by age or by age groups is formally the equivalent of the corresponding mortality rate. The projective probability concerns a cohort or group of cohorts. The use of fertility indices by age is acceptable in many types of projective computations in which, with their help, the translation of hypotheses concerning procreative behavior is carried out with sufficient precision. The rates are defined in relation to an initial total of marriages as of the time of their contraction.