ABSTRACT
The next four chapters of our book will examine the use of actuarial risk assessment instruments (ARAIs) in the assessment of recidivism risk in sex offenders. This section of the book takes an admiring but critical look at the ARAIs. The development of these risk assessment instruments (e.g., Hanson & Thornton, 1999; Quinsey, Harris, Rice, & Cormier, 1998) has coincided (approximately over the decade of the 90s) with the enactment and promulgation of legislative measures in the US to manage sex offenders. Sexually violent predator (SVP) laws are now in place in many of the American states. Courts operating under the jurisdiction of these laws require that forensic evaluators conduct evaluations of SVP candidates as to their risk for sexual recidivism and to present opinion evidence at trial concerning the risk posed by the individual. Among forensic psychologists and psychiatrists, it is now well accepted that ARAIs are an improvement over expert but subjective clinical judgment alone in estimating risk. Currently, virtually all SVP evaluations and trial testimony involve the use of ARAIs in one form or another. In turn, SVP courts have come to admit ARAI evidence, despite legal challenges to their admissibility (Janus & Prentky, 2003).
