ABSTRACT
On May 22, 1995, the White House approved a visa for Lee Teng-hui to visit the United States in early June to attend his graduate school reunion at Cornell University. The decision to allow Taiwan’s most senior leader to enter the United States reversed more than twenty-five years of U.S. diplomatic precedent and challenged Clinton administration public policy statements and private reassurances to Chinese leaders that such a visit was contrary to U.S. policy. Equally important, the visa decision followed a three-year evolution of U.S. policy toward Taiwan. In 1992 the Bush administration, in violation of its pledge in a 1982 U.S.–China arms sales communiqué to reduce the quantity of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, sold Taiwan 150 F-16 warplanes. In 1994 the Clinton administration revised upward the protocol rules regarding U.S. “unofficial” treatment of Taiwan diplomats, which had for the most part been in effect since 1981. Then the next year, the administration allowed Lee Teng-hui to visit the United States. From China’s perspective, Washington seemed determined to continue revising its Taiwan policy, thus encouraging Taiwan’s leaders to move closer toward a declaration of sovereignty from mainland China. Given China’s credible forty-five-year commitment to use force in retaliation against Taiwan independence, such a declaration would likely lead to war.
