ABSTRACT
At fi rst glance, each presidential nomination contest appears to be unique. Folklore develops on how certain instances or decisions were crucial to the battle being waged. One such example is the frequent retelling of the events from a Manchester, New Hampshire coffee shop in 2008 when an audience member asked Senator Hillary Clinton how she could continue to campaign given the on-going adversity (and a loss in the Iowa caucuses). Clinton replied, “It’s not easy . . . . I couldn’t do it if I just didn’t passionately believe it was the right thing to do . . . I just don’t want to see us fall backwards.”1 Did this wistful (or as depicted in some media accounts tearful) response turn the tide in the 2008 New Hampshire primary, leading to a Clinton come-back and setting up the long battle between Clinton and Senator Barack Obama? Did Howard Dean’s scream at the conclusion of his pep talk to supporters after losing the 2004 Iowa caucuses doom his campaign? At other times, “Monday morning quarterbacks” criticize candidates for fl aws in their strategies. For example, did Senator Bill Bradley’s decision in 2000 to compete vigorously (and lose) in Iowa cause him to forfeit his early lead in New Hampshire?2 Still others ask whether media bias distorts the outcome, such as questioning whether undue favorable coverage of McCain in 2000 or Obama in 2008 garnered them additional support at the polls.3
