ABSTRACT
Why study the effect of arms transfers3 on war? As noted by Engelbrecht and Hanighen more than half a century ago, trends in the global arms trade are carefully watched because of expectations concerning the outbreak and outcomes of war.4 Most analysts conclude that increasing global arms sales enhances military capabilities around the world, thus leading to an increase in the likelihood of war.5 War, seen as a public phenomenon, produces negative externalities, such as demographic dislocations,
economic distortions, contamination from the use of weapons of mass destruction, and potentially the fundamental reordering of the international system.6 If arms transfers heighten the likelihood of war outbreak or intensify these, or other, consequences of war, then their study should play an integral role in peace research. Finally, because war has at least since the days of Clausewitz been conceived as “politics by other means,” it must be considered as a policy option by statesmen.7 If arms transfers alter leaders’ decision-making calculus in assessing probable costs and benefits of militaristic policies (as asserted by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute), then researchers should investigate the precise relationships.8
