ABSTRACT
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), arms sales in the international system are again increasing after a hiatus in the early 1990s.3 Like-minded analysts contend that “the arms trade is extremely dangerous” in that it aggravates regional tensions, promotes instability, and “increases the risk of open conflict.”4 Similarly, there are those who assert that arms sales “prolonged and escalated wars, resulting in more suffering and destruction.”5 However, others claim that weapons sales equalize military asymmetries between “‘have’ and ‘have not’ countries” and create a security environment where “deterrence will be enhanced.”6 It follows that deterrence provides for less death and destruction. Contradictory claims such as these provide fruitful ground for scientific research. If increasing numbers of arms sales do indeed influence the outbreak and outcomes of wars, then there should be empirical evidence of this. In this chapter, we undertake such an empirical examination of the relationship between global arms transfers and war outbreak and war outcomes in the international system.7
