Problems of transition

Gogol ends his satire on Tsarist Russia, The Government Inspector, with the image of a careering troika (three-horse carriage) dragging Russia no one knew whither: ‘And where do you fly to, Russia?’ This troika has still not yet been tamed, and its final destination remains a mystery. The country in 1991 may well have set its compass for capitalist democracy, yet the storms and turmoil of the succeeding years have taken Russia into unfamiliar territory. It is not quite a fully fledged consolidated democracy, since the rule of law remains too weak and the ability of executive and bureaucratic agencies to insulate themselves from popular accountability and control too high. Nor would it be accurate to talk about Russia having endured a failed democratic transition, since it is far too early to consider the present system as the end point of Russia’s post-communist evolution. Russia is not an authoritarian state, although there are undoubtedly elements of authoritarianism. It is a hybrid system with considerable scope for further democratic evolution, or indeed the establishment of a harder authoritarian order. In this chapter we examine the historical and theoretical problems associated with the concept of democratic transition, and in the final chapter analyse the tribulations of democracy in Russia. As we shall see, approaches focusing on modernisation and development are misleading in suggesting an inevitable outcome that can by no means be assumed. The view that Sovietstyle politics could be cast off to expose a nascent capitalist democracy was misleading, but not entirely erroneous. There are profound continuities between the Tsarist, Soviet and post-Soviet eras in Russia, but at the same time there are enormous discontinuities and innovations. It is precisely the analysis of the dynamics of change and continuity that can reveal the sources of Russian political evolution. A democratic Russia could not emerge fully formed like Minerva from the brow of Zeus; but neither is the country forever in thrall to its tragic yet glorious past.