ABSTRACT
Why did the power shift that Russia and Germany experienced over the period 1870-90 never lead to war? This case of peaceful shift in power runs counter to the conventional wisdom that marked changes in the balance of power are among the most powerful causes of war. In this chapter, I apply my strategic theory of preventive war to solving this interesting puzzle and examine how well the declining Russia’s military strategy accounts for the absence of war. To this end, I investigate whether Russia adopted attrition strategies during this period, and if so, how they shaped the country’s motive for preventive action and military and diplomatic opportunities. I also scrutinize how these factors in turn helped the two rivals avoid war in general and reach the rapprochement in the 1880s in particular. This chapter also probes whether any of alternative theories can present a better solution to this puzzle.
