ABSTRACT
Social ageing changes everything. An aged society is not necessarily better or worse than a young one, but it is different. How it is different is not so obvious, nor is what causes the difference. When we think of Meiji Japan as being different from the present, demographics is not the first thing that comes to mind, although population size and structure obviously are essential aspects of the change. From the beginning of the Meiji era until the present Heisei era, Japan’s population has grown at a continuous and at times alarming rate from 35 million to 127 million. Meiji Japan and Heisei Japan differ not only because they are separated by 120 years, but also because a society of 35 million is not the same as one of 127 million. The population structure reinforces the difference. A major reason why Japan today is unlike it was in former times is because it has an older population. Since World War II, Japan has gained 30 years in life expectancy. In 1950, the structure
of the Japanese population formed a classical pyramid, where each successively older age cohort is a smaller portion of the total population. Half a century later, the pyramid has been transformed into a pattern where the portion of the total population in each age cohort is more balanced, resulting in a shape that resembles a column with some irregular bumps. This means that in 2007 there are not simply just 50 million more Japanese than there were in 1945; they form a very different society. And in 2030, when the oldest cohort is predicted to exceed the youngest by a large measure, the difference will be even more pronounced (Figure 12.1). Population dynamics interact with socioeconomic change, accompany it, and drive it onwards, working as both cause and catalyst.
