ABSTRACT

Predicting events which are under our control would be an extraordinarily complex matter. Perhaps no one ever will predict such an event and falsify it. However, it is enough that it would be possible to make such a prediction and falsify it: the mere possibility of a contradiction is enough for the argument. A contradiction would be involved in predicting, for example, that I will go on holiday to Venice next year and then refraining from doing so. If I don’t go to Venice then I won’t have predicted correctly. But is self-prediction of this sort even possible? Maybe predicting a future action of mine on the basis of present conditions and causal laws is beyond my intellectual capacity. Of course I may predict that I will do so because I have already decided to go there, but that is a different matter. We are talking about predicting on the basis of current physical conditions and physical causal laws. That sort of prediction is certainly way beyond us at the moment, despite our increasing knowledge of the human brain. Without any reason to think such predictions would be humanly possible, the paradox has little bite. It may be a necessary condition for controlling our actions that we are not capable of making predictions we could frustrate.