ABSTRACT
Outside China, awe is expressed at the economic growth miracle and the productivity boom produced by the reforms and the unprecedented scale of foreign investment over the past two decades. Today most observers assume that China’s economy will continue to expand or at least remain at growth rates of between 8 and 10 per cent due to the signifi cant restraints still in the system and the government’s commitment to further reform. Indeed for most outsiders, China has an aura of invincibility largely based on the assumption that this dragon-like country will continue to experience an economic boom, all the while importing raw materials and exporting manufactured goods in ways which inexorably affect global markets, prices and the location of work. Although it is a fair guess that economic growth will continue at high rates and that exports will continue to expand to include commodities and goods at the high end of technology, this aura of invincibility is not necessarily shared by China’s leaders. While taking pride in the country’s economic growth and achievements, China’s leaders have successively become less sanguine and more ready to admit that present rates of economic growth may not be sustainable and that the quality of growth is deteriorating. As the introductory chapter suggested, the importance of continuing economic growth alongside maintaining the physical environment and social stability is now emphasised by China’s leaders as new concerns for the costs of economic growth have emerged. The gradual acknowledgement of the social costs and environmental problems associated with rapid economic growth is aptly illustrated by the contrast between Zhu Rongji’s speeches at the beginning and at the end of his premiership. In 1998 when Zhu Rongji took offi ce, he pledged that ‘no matter what is waiting for me – whether it be landmines or an abyss, I will blaze my trail’. Four years later, nearing the end of his tenure in 2002, his 2-hour speech emphasised less of the trail blazing and more of the ‘new diffi culties’ and ‘severe challenges’ which had worsened in recent years.1 In 2004, Premier Wen Jiabao, in a widely reported speech to top offi cials, emphasised that China was entering a new stage of development:
The development process of many countries shows that during this stage, two developmental results may appear. In one scenario, a country successfully industrialises and modernizes. In another, growing economic gaps and
social tensions cause development to stagnate or even result in turmoil and repression.2
