ABSTRACT
Inevitably growth was much faster in the 1950s and 1960s when aviation was a new industry than it is today when it is reaching maturity. But growth rates are still impressive. In the 1950s and 1960s the world’s air traffic, measured in terms of tonne kilometres carried, grew on average at around 14-15 per cent each year. In the decade 1970-79 the annual growth was close to 10 per cent. This still meant that air traffic, and the airlines with it, doubled in size every seven years or so. In the following ten years to 1989 growth declined to around 6 per cent annually and in the decade up to 1999 growth was down slightly at 5.2 per cent. In absolute terms, because of the much higher base, a 5 per cent jump in recent years represents a much greater surge in demand than a 10 per cent annual growth thirty years ago. Most long-term forecasts for the first decade of the new millennium are also just above or below the 5 per cent mark.
