ABSTRACT

Shipbuilding, perhaps more than any other industry, has been subject to a major shift in geographic distribution in recent years. Long the core of the industry, Western Europe has increasingly declined relative to, first, Japan, and now newly-industrialising countries as well. As a result, it is expected to account for less than 20 per cent of the world output by the end of the decade. 1 Even more alarming, is the sudden emergence of countries such as South Korea and China, Taiwan and Brazil, as major players in world shipbuilding. The Economist, for one, predicts the impending eclipse of Japan by South Korea and advises the 'also-rans' in Bremerhaven and Belfast to bow out of the industry as gracefully as possible. 2 More sober observers assert that 'European yards have been reduced to skeleton proportions of their former selves and there is no end in sight'. 3