ABSTRACT

Commercial terrestrial communications technology has shown continuous progress in terms of increasing communications capability and decreasing costs. Figure 42 illustrates both the sequence of major related technical innovations since the inception of telegraph services and the projected innovations. A highly significant trend is the merging of many communications and computer technologies (Figure 43), a notable example of which is the increasing use of digital data-link communications systems (Figure 44). In general, the historical expansion in capability (bits per second) of telecommunications has averaged a rather steady factor of ten every seventeen years. The advent of the synchronous communications satellite has extended communications growth into new, higher regions of growth and performance. Communication satellite systems for various domestic, international, commercial and military applications should undergo continued extensive development. Telecommunications firms predict that the emerging market for satellite business communications could even dwarf the now evident satellite television entertainment market as space-based satellite relays supersede the digital data communications function of the telephone. Increased joint international ventures are likely given rising overall hardware system costs (although, as Figure 45 shows, transmission costs will steadily decrease, and consequently user rates are expected to drop compared to the future costs of such commodities as paper, gasoline and transportation), and the decreasing availability of suitable orbital space at geosynchronous earth orbit (GEO). Overall, technical advances could permit increasing accessibility for individuals and LDCs alike. Important communications satellite applications will include telephony, telex, high-speed data transmission and direct broadcast.