ABSTRACT
This chapter brings together all the dynamics discussed in the preceding nine chapters and proposes five possible future scenarios in order of likelihood – “Continuity, accompanied by an intensifying assault on Taiwan’s democratic institutions,” “Xi meant what he said and unleashes the furies of Chinese ultranationalism,” “An embattled CCP uses the external card,” “CCP collapse,” and “Taiwan capitulates.” It addresses the latest developments in Taiwan politics and cross-Strait relations, from the emergence of the Han “wave” following the landslide municipal elections in late 2018 to Xi Jinping’s hardline address to “Taiwanese compatriots” in January 2019 and the growing political crisis in Hong Kong.
