ABSTRACT
This chapter turns to developments in China under Xi Jinping, looking at the CCP’s aspirations toward Taiwan, the region and globally. The various elements of Xi’s ideology and rhetoric provide important clues as to the future direction of the party on matters pertaining to China’s claims to Taiwan. But demographics, the economy, and other challenges facing China could also undermine Xi’s ability to accomplish his great ambitions. China’s power will likely peak within the next decade or so before the various contradictions within it start to undermine its power. As a result, the CCP, aware that the clock is ticking, may feel compelled to take action while the window of opportunity remains open, with the implication that this may lead to more risk-taking and less rational decision-making. In other words, the period of greatest risk in the Taiwan Strait and the immediate region may lie between now and 2030.
