ABSTRACT
This chapter presents an in-depth examination of the assessment stage of our Active Killer Threat Management and Resolution Model. Assessment refers to the accurate judgment of clusters of offender behavior in determining the presence of an imminent or immediate threat of planned lethal violence. This chapter also introduces our Predictive Behavioral Threat Forecasting Model that uses time series analysis to identify patterns and pattern changes to forecast the level of threat of planned lethal violence within school, campus, and workplace environments. A key component relating to our model is the differentiation between the processes of forecasting versus predicting, as well as the consistent investigation of all anomalies while recognizing that the greater the significance of the anomaly and/or the frequency of its occurrence, the more concerning and measurable that behavior becomes.
