Introduction

This introduction presents an overview of the key concepts discussed in the subsequent chapters of this book. The book argues that the future is far brighter than any Americans have studied or contemplated since the end of World War II. This optimistic prediction, in itself, is a difficult prospect for many to accept. Wars and terrorism resulting from religious fanaticism seemed likely to spread from the Middle East to much of the industrialized world. Many prophets pessimistically predicted that Armageddon was closer at hand than the Third Millennium if the conflict somehow escalated to nuclear war. The method of the study is to imagine the future as being shaped largely by the interaction of four central forces—democratization, technological innovation, regional integration, and the obsolescence of war—and their impact on economic and political behavior. Year of Peace, more wars were being fought than at any time since the end of World War II and the international organization itself was widely thought to be moribund.