ABSTRACT
Perceptions of deterrence are fundamental to the rational actionreaction models that have been applied to the arms race. Agents within an interdependent system feel threatened by alterations in the global security context. Their perceptions of threat do not express a simple awareness of the arms buildup of an antagonist, but spring rather from transformations and weaknesses within a security system. The data indicates that the perception of threat, even in a zone as homogeneous as Central America, varies radically. It is important to analyze the situation of Venezuela in the light of our general hypothesis, as Venezuelan levels of military expenditures and arms imports appear unrelated to internal situations or border conflicts, despite some rivalries with Colombia and Guyana. Turning to the cases of Peru and Chile, we again see the weaknesses of the binary active/reactive model and the importance of attending to the international context of security and its impact on subregional situations.
