ABSTRACT
Over the past 5 years, largely because of the most severe recession in the postwar era and substantial increases in military pay, the Army has seen its recruiting fortunes rise dramatically. Five years ago virtually all applicants were accepted; now unprecedented levels of recruit quality have been attained. The next 5 years are unlikely to be as favorable. Because of the prospects of continued economic recovery, tight federal budgets that preclude generous pay increases, and shrinking youth cohorts, the Army will have to monitor its recruiting program closely. Given the length of the Department of Defense (DOD} budgeting process, recruiting shortfalls must be identified 12 to 18 months in advance. In such an environment the necessity of a reliable forecasting model is self-evident.
