ABSTRACT
Scenarios are made by systematically weaving together certainties and uncertainties. The Marxist description of how bourgeois capitalism would inevitably give way to the worldwide dictatorship of the proletariat once captured countless minds with its bold prophecy. There are too many factors, too many variables, uncertainties that multiply the farther forward we try to look. Yet at the same time, it is absolutely essential to have some image of what may lie ahead in order to function in any kind of endeavor that calls for a plan or strategy. Technological innovation is inseparable from experience and learning; it builds on itself. Globalization also advances readily, out of a vast range of activities including antiglobalization politics. To recognize this gives no certainty about any specific developments; it only sketches out the general terrain in which we will act and argue and, most probably, be surprised.
