ABSTRACT

This chapter suggests ordinal scales by which one might estimate likely consequences of certain roles in which an East European military might be employed and by which the effect of time on mobilization potential could be gauged. Of principal concern to NATO strategists is the relationship between domestic socioeconomic and political conditions of East European states and the use of those countries' military forces in hostile circumstances. Speculation, albeit informed about the military capabilities of East European forces, remains widespread regarding the impact of domestic socioeconomic and political conditions. Regardless of how implausible a NATO offensive may be, defensive operations by East European forces, under WTO command but operating within their own borders, would certainly raise one's expectations that all available forces would be unimpeded when applied to combat. Warsaw Pact planning, of course, recognizes these severe limitations on East European military reliability, and only very select GDR or Polish units would likely be involved in the initial Soviet thrust.