ABSTRACT
The infitah bourgeoisie that prospered under Sadat has retained considerable influence despite a sustained effort by Mubarak to erode its economic pre-eminence and curtail its political access. The Mubarak regime has yet to establish the political foundations required for such thoroughgoing economic changes, nor are there strong indications that such a political base is coalescing as a result of the partial liberalization. The politics of divide and rule, coupled to an economic policy that retains elements of the social contract while imposing greater fiscal austerity, is the most likely outlook for the short- and medium-term futures. The high-profile United States presence both embarrasses the regime and constrains its policy choices. And finally, Egypt's regional policy is fraught with peril. In 1987 the Arab World turned to Egypt to serve as a shield against Iran, thereby confronting Mubarak with yet more difficult choices.
