ABSTRACT
Raymond Aron had argued that "the competition of arms is a guarantee of security to the extent that it guarantees the status quo and excludes a misunderstanding." Stability depends on maximizing the predictability of major political relationships, whether between adversaries, among allies, or within domestic political systems. Conventional arms control offers an unprecedented opportunity for changing the European security relationship and for managing the direction of that change. North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) faces a crisis of confidence with respect to its reliance on nuclear weapons. A stable military relationship is one in which no state has an incentive to initiate conflict. NATO's greatest challenge in approaching conventional arms control may be to articulate publicly a coherent vision of the present, of desirable futures. The pursuit of arms control must be weighed, not just in terms of its success in reaching agreements, but in terms of its effect on the other means by which a nation protects its security.
