ABSTRACT
The decline of China's grain production in 1985 was partly due to the fact there was no further increase in grain prices. Since regional differences may play an important role in the future development of Chinese agriculture, the regional model may produce better projections. If the World Bank's projections are correct, the Chinese government will probably take measures to encourage the shift from rice to feed grain production in order to reduce the domestic grain production imbalance. For many reasons, the Chinese government would like to reach a level of self-sufficiency in grain. The World Bank made projections of China's grain trade into the year 2000. They suggested that by the year 2000 China's excess demand for feed grain would be 45 to 60 mmt while her rice production would be 30 mmt in surplus annually and this imbalance would be solved through international trade.
