ABSTRACT
This chapter discusses how the forecasting and refinement of baseline, direct project, and total inputs fits into the overall social assessment process. It also discusses the major factors influencing the forecasts of the several types of inputs. Careful examination of the forecast baseline conditions may be useful in determining how the residents are likely to respond to the project-related jobs and what the jobs will mean to community residents. According to the analytic framework developed earlier in the guide, two basic sets of information are needed to forecast the social effects of a proposed action: a description of the existing environment and forecasts of the baseline, direct project, and total inputs. Most responsibility for preparing the forecasts of baseline, direct project, and total changes in people, jobs, income, resources, and public safety lies, in a interdisciplinary setting, with other members of the assessment team.
