ABSTRACT
India’s development of a nuclear weapons capability, which dates from the late 1960s, has been prompted by a range of motives. Indian nuclear decision-making takes place against a backdrop of broader strategic, foreign policy, and domestic political considerations, and is directly influenced by specific developments in the nuclear programs of India’s potential adversaries, particularly Pakistan. India’s assertiveness cast it in the role of “regional bully” in the eyes of many of its neighbors and undoubtedly heightened Pakistani security concerns. China’s posture could change dramatically, however, if India deployed the Agni. Such a step would inevitably increase tensions with Beijing and could well lead either to a significant expansion of Chinese nuclear forces or to a reorientation of a portion of China’s existing arsenal, particularly if Sino-Soviet tensions continue to ease. If India kept its Agni force entirely conventional, moreover, it would also have to worry about Chinese miscalculation in a crisis.
