ABSTRACT
Forecasting patterns of international political behavior is a difficult but necessary task for meaningful policy planning, and it is important that policymakers reflect on how modern weapons and military capabilities will affect the frequency, structure, and outcomes of regional conflicts. Assessment of Third World military power and conflict futures require integrated analyses of the relationships of weapons, geography, and the human element and must draw on objective modeling as well as on the historical analysis of past regional conflicts. In contrast, external threats to the Arabian Peninsula by the larger and relatively more powerful regional powers have been minimized because of geographical constraints and the tendency of the neighbors to focus their attention on each other and on their own internal problems. In Africa, Nigeria’s oil revenues are currently tied primarily to commercial and political development aspirations, but there is likely to be sufficient capital to build a substantial regional military capability.
