ABSTRACT
The future roles of People's Republic of China oil exports, whether large or small, seem clear. Soviet economic dislocations would increase relative Chinese economic and strategic strength, lessen the Russian military threat, and enhance China's political and ideological position in the Third World. The Soviet figures are perhaps the best analog for long-term projections of Chinese oil production, as neither the Soviet Union nor China has permitted Western oil companies to help develop its resources. China's education system will have to produce the large numbers of geologists, geophysicists, production engineers, and petroleum management specialists required to staff a major state-run oil industry. Analysis to date, comparing China to Saudi Arabia or other oil giants, has grossly exaggerated Chinese capabilities. China will require increasing rates of investment from a relatively finite capital pool to sustain out-year production growth. Indeed, most econometric studies of China's energy picture foresee exports approaching zero in the 1985-to-1990 period.
