ABSTRACT
To assess the sensitivity of the calculated critical probability to the possibility that substantial emission-reducing responses have been overlooked, the simulated demand curves were made uniformly more elastic. The simulated demand curves are based on analysis of the costs of substitute chemicals, products, and manufacturing processes for various applications. A dramatic result of technological innovation would be the development of chemicals that substitute for potential ozone depleters (POD) in a wide range of applications. Technological innovation may reduce the future costs of limiting POD emissions. Such innovation could include the development of substitute chemicals or alternative products or manufacturing processes that release smaller quantities of PODs. The weights used for calculating cumulative weighted emissions and the surcharges applied to each chemical, are proportional to their approximate estimated relative ozone-depletion efficiencies. The surcharge applied to methyl chloroform would be one-tenth the base surcharge listed in the text and the surcharges applied to the halons would be ten times the base surcharge.
