ABSTRACT
Scenarios are designed to illustrate the implications of an underlying probability distribution or to represent some general kind of event that has a significant probability of occurring. Understanding the probability distribution of the outcomes and costs of a policy to restrict potential ozone depleter emissions requires assessment and convolution of uncertainties about a wide range of factors. A probability distribution for the extent of ozone depletion could be developed by first developing subjective probability distributions for the uncertain quantities in each of the boxes that feed into the potential stratospheric ozone depletion box and using Monte Carlo analysis to convolute these distributions. The score function proposed here weights the production levels of the chemicals, transforming them to a scale on which a unit of each is believed to have approximately the same effect on the ozone. Any value of the score function corresponds to an infinite variety of production growth rates for individual chemicals.
