ABSTRACT
The significant possibility that emissions of certain commercially important chemicals may deplete stratospheric ozone poses a difficult policy problem. To formulate constructive policy, it is useful to understand the many uncertainties that affect the relationship between decisions to reduce the global use of potential ozone depleters (POD) and the effects that such reduction might have on human health, materials degradation, crop yields, and other activities of interest. Calculation costs dictate that only a limited number of cases be considered in the atmospheric models used to study ozone depletion. The method presented provides a way to relate scenarios for the future production of seven PODs to the probability distribution for ozone depletion. Additional attention to substantive issues associated with the construction of scenarios for application to the issue of potential ozone depletion is likely to be more productive in the short run.
