ABSTRACT
This chapter provides some answers as to how epistemic uncertainty can be noticed, if not necessarily forecast traditionally. It addresses the issue of how we can notice more about those events impacting our project to which we have little knowledge of. The assumption of normality is reinforced by periods of success. Success is characterised by the absence of failures. Filtering out the unfamiliar failures goes hand-in-hand with paying attention to the measurable and quantifiable. Most project management tools are based on the rationale of turning an uncertain environment into a single deterministic future. Instead of challenging a project manager’s assumptions, they often reinforce the illusion of certainty, providing single estimates that are turned into commitments and corresponding simple ‘pass/fail’ criteria.
