ABSTRACT
Beginning in 2013, the dramatic growth of the TNC industry presented an existential threat to the taxicab industry in Seattle. TNC industry economics are examined including a comparison of the TNC and taxicab industries: service companies, drivers, vehicles, entry, rates, method of payment trip types and expenses (vehicle, insurance, equipment, service fees, license fees, fuel, service fees, vehicle maintenance and tolls). TNC and taxicab revenue trips are compared using current 2018 data. The lack of data caused by opposition from Uber and Lyft to public records requests has been a serious impediment to serious analysis. The history of this problem is explored. Demographics of TNC drivers are discussed. The history of efforts by independent researchers to compute TNC driver hourly earnings is discussed in detail. TNC unprofitability is examined along with the reasons why and the ramifications for the future. TNC driver and customer and driver switching costs are investigated. The issues of below-cost rates, consumer surplus and surge pricing are studied. The early work with autonomous cars is reported including the first fatality accident with a test car. Planned Uber and Lyft IPOs in 2019 are discussed. Uber’s bike-share (JUMP) is studied.
