ABSTRACT

In accordance with China’s three-pronged strategy for economic development, by the mid-21st century, people’s lives will be more affluent and prosperous, models of economic growth healthier and more balanced, while the economy will have been modernized as a whole and per capita GNP will have reached the levels of middle-income countries. Over the next 30 years or so, economic transition, including that of the marine economy, will be of utmost importance. It commonly takes between 10 and 20 years for countries like Japan and South Korea to transition from an economy based on scale to one based on quality. China will have formidable anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capacities; furthermore there will be significant improvements in China’s peripheral environment. Maritime disputes involving China will no longer be the focal points or hotspots of China’s relations with its neighboring countries at sea.