ABSTRACT
There are very few published energy scenarios in which nuclear power is absent from the global electricity mix throughout the 21st century. This chapter uses the latest scenarios to assess what is possible over the next 30 years, and the potential benefits to the environment.
An analysis of the most recent scenarios suggests the existing global fleet of about 440 nuclear reactors will be replaced by between 480 and 780 reactors in 2060, depending on the scenario; to replace coal and gas generation with nuclear generation in 2060 would require between 20 and 800, and between 400 and 2000 additional nuclear reactors, respectively. The evidence suggests it is possible to refresh the existing global nuclear fleet, but to go further and replace coal and gas generation would require a major increase in build rate.
Currently, the emission of about 3 GTCO2 is avoided if nuclear generation has displaced coal generation in the global electricity supply, much less if gas generation is displaced; for comparison, global emissions total about 33 GTCO2. Looking ahead to 2060, nuclear generation could avoid between 4 and 7 GtCO2 if coal is displaced, depending on the scenario. This compares very favourably with other potential mitigation actions.
