ABSTRACT
The world oil market witnessed two major price shocks in the 1970s: the 1973/1974 quadrupling of oil prices and the 1979/1980 doubling of oil prices. The giant and supergiant fields already discovered contain 75 percent of the known oil reserves of the world, and future such fields have the best probability of being discovered in the Gulf. The simulation study by P. R. Odell and K. E. Rosing suggests a 90 percent probability that oil production worldwide will continue to grow until the year 2009, a 50 percent probability that it will continue to grow until 2037, and a 10 percent probability that the growth will not peak before 2077. The reserves-to-production ratio is valid at any point in time, but proven reserves change with different recovery rates. If production is continued at the expected levels, then by sometime early in the twenty-first century Kuwait's income from investments may equal income from oil exports.
