ABSTRACT
At the end of 1987, US policy toward the reunification of China was firm on principle but somewhat flexible in application. Turning to Chinese disincentives for reunification, it is difficult to find reasons why the People's Republic of China should not want to promote wider contact with Taiwan. But a few hypothetical disincentives can be suggested which might cause Beijing to slow down the process of reunification. In general terms, there are three possible alternative futures for Taiwan: Taiwan independence, an indefinite continuation of the status quo, or reunification with China. Most people on Taiwan—and analysts in the US for that matter—prefer the continuation of the status quo. But, as noted by Secretary George Shultz in 1987, the status quo does not mean that the situation in the Taiwan Strait is static. In fact, both Chinese sides are in the midst of remarkable political and economic transformation.
