ABSTRACT
This chapter introduces rural electricity demand analysis and forecasting and identifies some of the main problems of practical implementation. Accurate demand projection is important for several interrelated reasons. First, timely and reasonably reliable anticipation of rural energy needs is vital not only for rural electricity, but also for overall rural energy supply. Second, expansion of rural electricity supply systems usually requires many years to plan and implement. Third, investments in such systems are highly capital intensive. If forecasts are too low, shortages can retard rural development. Costs of shortages to consumers are usually a large multiple of the volume of energy not supplied. If demand projections are too high, large amounts of capital with high opportunity costs could be tied up uselessly for long periods of time. Either of these consequences is costly to an economy, far more costly than the resources needed to undertake detailed and reliable demand studies that could help avoid such errors.
