ABSTRACT
It is difficult to look beyond the AWACS debate and make any precise predictions of the growth of Saudi military capabilities, of the trend in Saudi-U.S. relations, or of Saudi Arabia's role in the region. As is discussed in the following chapters, the future may well be shaped by factors beyond Saudi and U.S. control. These factors include the aftermath of Israel's invasion of Lebanon; the long-term outcome of the Iran-Iraq War; the success of the conservative and radical states in the Gulf area in forging collective military strength; the rate of world economic recovery and recovery of the demand for Saudi oil; the future rate of arms transfers into the area; and political developments that take place in the Yemens and the Red Sea area. Some of these trends will act to divide the U.S. and Saudi Arabia in spite of the AWACS sale. Others may forge an even tighter military relationship or even diminish Israeli opposition to U.S. strategic ties to Saudi Arabia. There are, however, several things that can be said about the forces shaping Saudi Arabia's military future and Saudi-U.S. military relations. These forces will strongly influence Saudi Arabia's ability to act as the fulcrum of a Western strategic partnership with the Gulf states.
