ABSTRACT
Guided by research showing that the latent structure of crime-related constructs is continuous, Chapter 4 adopts a risk assessment approach to variable selection using a multi-stage model of theory integration. After clarifying the differences between clinical and theoretical risk assessment, the chapter explores falsification, as originally outlined by Popper, as a way of selecting, evaluating, and verifying relevant theoretical risk factors, which happens to be the first stage of the multi-stage model. Once a cadre of verified theoretical risk factors has been amassed, the next step or stage is to arrange these risk factors into three-variable sequences or units called triads. It is the goal of this stage of the multi-stage model to arrange verified theoretical risk factors into antecedent, mediating, and moderating triads. Once the triads themselves have been verified, they are organized into a working paradigm as part of the third or elaboration stage of the multi-stage model. Elaboration entails merging triads into an organized whole using a philosophy that addresses the nature of man, the nature of society, and the nature of change and a procedure grounded in Kuhn’s puzzle solving approach to scientific induction.
