ABSTRACT
The goal of this chapter is to define and explain evidence-based offender profiling (EBOP) and the reason for its development by Fox and Farrington. Specifically, the chapter discusses the issues surrounding clinical versus statistical profiling and how these issues can lead to low accuracy and effectiveness when clinical offender profiles are used in police investigations.
A step-by-step process to conduct EBOP is presented. EBOP advocates the use of objective statistical classification techniques, such as latent class analysis (LCA). LCA’s objective goodness-of-fit criteria eliminate subjectivity when identifying the sub-types in the results, the quantitative output indicates the precise composition of the resulting sub-types, and the classification probabilities allow researchers to determine sub-type membership for each case in the dataset. Studies have shown that LCA is a more objective and empirical classification technique and has many benefits compared with classification methods more commonly used in the offender profiling literature.
The results of several studies which developed and evaluated evidence-based offender profiles are discussed, including profiles of burglars, juvenile homicide and sex offenders, and cyber offenders. The limitations of the EBOP method, the need for direct replication of EBOP profiles, and related opportunities for future research are discussed.
This chapter also discusses the necessity to evaluate offender profiling techniques using experimental methods, which the field has largely not used despite the major implications of profiling and perceptions of its accuracy by law enforcement and the public. Finally, the chapter ends by calling for more research using evidence-based profiling methods and experimental evaluations.
