ABSTRACT

The concept of risk was born and developed in contexts of globalization such as the Islamic expansion, the Mediterranean commerce in Middle Age and the development of the Spanish and British empires. Risk is then the product of a globalization whose challenge was to traverse the emptiness of deserts and seas in order to dominate vast and immense spaces. Risk emerged from these enormous undertaking, to become a novel concept which expanded at the same time that globalization. The historical development of a narrative risk, which existed before the mathematical, was associated with writing and never with orality. The risk, always an expert concept, was born from writing. The mathematical probability and the risk calculus were invented a long time after the use of a narrative probability to conceive and apply to something or someone at risk. Probability was first deductive and just after some centuries became inductive. For a long time, the risk was narrated rather than calculated.