ABSTRACT
Certain regions that are currently net exporters of cereals could also be characterized by reduced crop-water availability and thus by reduced productive potential as a result of climatic changes. Relatively small changes in the mean values of rainfall and temperature can have a marked effect on the frequency of extreme levels of available warmth and moisture. In addition, relatively small decreases in rainfall, changes in rainfall distribution or increases in evapotranspiration could markedly increase the probability, intensity and duration of drought in currently drought-prone regions. Increase in drought-risk represents potentially the most serious impact of climatic change on agriculture both at the regional and the global level. Impacts on potential yields are likely to vary greatly according to types of climatic change and types of agriculture. Agriculture has an ability to adjust, within given economic and technological constraints, to a limited rate of climatic change.
