ABSTRACT
Forecasts are based on historical demand, and for decades the aviation industry has used such data for short, medium, and long-term planning purposes. Medium-term forecasts generally span a period of one to five years and involve such things as route-planning decisions. The choice of forecasting methods should be based on several factors, including availability of data, accuracy of available data, management sophistication, intended forecast use, and availability of electronic data processing. Short-term forecasts are generally more accurate than long-term forecasts because the underlying determinants and the relationships between variables tend to change less in the short run than in the long run. The usefulness of expert opinion, sales force opinion, or polls depends on the cost, availability, and reliability of these types of data. Poll forecasts are susceptible to a number of errors, including poor judgment, ignorance, and uncertainty among the respondents.
