ABSTRACT
This chapter illustrates how an appropriate minimum clarity approach might compare to common practice in a project planning context, a basic common practice Critical Path Method approach often begins with direct point estimates for the duration of each component activity. It looks at probabilistic modelling of uncertainty about how long it might take to restock an inventory for ‘safety stock’ purposes, employing a simple approach in a very simple operations management example context. The chapter considers an even simpler treatment of unbiased expected value estimates for deterministic optimal order quantity models when probability distributions are of limited interest. It also considers a minimum clarity approach to estimating the duration of one activity in a project. The chapter explores options which provide modest but useful amounts of further clarity at a relatively low cost. It provides aspects of clarity by addressing the underlying complexity which may be worthwhile, eventually considering the role of clarity efficiency, risk efficiency, and then opportunity efficiency.
