ABSTRACT
Chapter 7—Summary, Conclusions, the Future. The author here explores Taiwan’s alternative futures focusing on the U.S. factor, the China factor and the international milieu. America protects Taiwan but Taiwan does not help enough and polls in the United States suggest U.S. citizens do not want to shed its soldiers’ blood to protect Taiwan, especially if it initiates a conflict. Yet Taiwan has value in terms of America’s relationship with China, especially considering its location that impedes China’s naval expansion into the Pacific and on to America’s West Coast, its help in obtaining intelligence on China and the impact the loss of Taiwan would have on U.S. Asia policies and keeping its allies. China’s intentions are uncertain. Its policy is to attract Taiwan economically so that Taiwan will willingly unify with China. Its deadline is 2049, the 100th anniversary of the establishment of People’s China. That is a long way off and much could change by then, before which China may change is policy. The salient questions are: Will Taiwan trigger a war between the United States and China (intentionally or otherwise)? How will China’s rise as a world power and America’s decline affect Taiwan’s choices? When will that happen?
