ABSTRACT
This chapter focuses on the evolution of agricultural strategies in the Middle East and North Africa region and then explores the impact of increased water scarcity on its future. The common conflation of food security with self-sufficiency assumes that domestic production is a less risky mode of satisfying domestic demand than dependence on international trade. The policy constraints on food production is divided into two parts: skewed access to land and other "property rights" problems, and limited incentives for farmers. The intrusion of European colonialism always fostered bimodalism, a land-tenure system that combines a small number of owners holding very large estates with a large number of owners holding very small farms. Economic logic strongly suggests that agriculture, as the marginal user, will bear the brunt of increasingly limited water supplies. The implications for food security strategies are obvious: food security cannot be achieved through domestic production alone, and thus food imports are becoming more important.
